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Product: Daily Forecast of Geomagnetic Activity
Issued: 2022 January 21 09:06UTC
Prepared by the Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center
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1. Solar activity
Solar activity was decreasing stable during the past 24 hours.
Solar Flux (10.7 cm) measured on 20.01.2022 at 20:00 UTC was 99 sfu.
The background X-Ray flux is at the class B2.8 level.
The geomagnetic field was at very quiet to unsettle levels on Jan 20.
AR12929 erupted again on Jan 20 at 06:01 peak time producing a strong M5.5 class solar flare and a radioblackout of category R1. The associated CME is expected to miss Earth but a glancing blow is still possible. According to EAM predictions the arrival of a component from this CME is expected on Jan 23 between 09:10 and 16:15. 
The Kp index now is at quiet levels with Kp=1.

2. Solar Wind Geomagnetic Activity
Solar Wind speed from ACE: 420 km/s.
Solar Wind speed from STEREO A: 380 km/s.
Solar Wind speed from STEREO B: --- km/s.
The southward component Bz is: 1 nT north.

3. Solar Energetic Particle Events
GOES Proton Flux for particles with energies above 10 MeV exceed the SWPC 10 MeV warning threshold on Jan 20 at 08:00 due to the M5.5 solar flare. A solar radiation storm of level S1 was also observed.

4. Coronal Holes
Two new coronal holes (CH1055, CH1056) on the northern hemisphere of the visible solar disk will be in Earth facing position on Jan 20 and 21 respectively.

5. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at very quiet to unsettled levels on Jan 21 if the Jan 18 CME reach Earth, at very quiet levels on Jan 22 and at quiet to unsettled levels on Jan 23 if the Jan 20 CME reach Earth.

   Date      Estimated Ap index      Expected geom. storm
2022.01.21           05                        -
2022.01.22           02                        -
2022.01.23           06                        -

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Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center
Physics Department, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens
Athens Neutron Monitor Station A.NE.MO.S
Tel.: +30 210 727 6901
email: spaceweather@phys.uoa.gr
URL: http://spaceweather.phys.uoa.gr
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