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Product: Daily Forecast of Geomagnetic Activity
Issued: 2022 October 04 07:05UTC
Prepared by the Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center
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1. Solar activity
Solar activity was increasing during the past 24 hours.
Solar Flux (10.7 cm) measured on 03.10.2022 at 20:00 UTC was 155 sfu.
The background X-Ray flux is at the class C1.2 level.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1) levels on October 03.
Six M-class class solar flares were produced on October 03 and the biggest was the M4.2 from AR3110 at 10:11 peak time.
A partial halo CME may be associated with large eruption from AR 13113 beginning on October 01 at 13:09 UT. This CME could reach Earth early on October 4 between 10:56 UT and 10:57 UT according to EAM predictions.
No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
The Kp index now is at active levels with Kp=4.

2. Solar Wind Geomagnetic Activity
Solar Wind speed from ACE: 565 km/s.
Solar Wind speed from STEREO A: 400 km/s.
Solar Wind speed from STEREO B: - km/s.
The southward component Bz is: 6 nT south.

3. Solar Energetic Particle Events
Protons and electrons are quiet.

4. Coronal Holes
A recurrent equatorial coronal hole (CH1103) was Earth facing on September 27-October 01.

5. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm (G1) levels on October 04-05 due to effects of coronal hole (CH1103) high speed stream and CME observed on October 01 and at quiet to unsettled levels on October 06.

   Date      Estimated Ap index      Expected geom. storm
2022.10.04           30                        G1
2022.10.05           20                        G1
2022.10.06           14                        -

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Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center
Physics Department, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens
Athens Neutron Monitor Station A.NE.MO.S
Tel.: +30 210 727 6901
email: spaceweather@phys.uoa.gr
URL: http://spaceweather.phys.uoa.gr
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