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Product: Daily Forecast of Geomagnetic Activity
Issued: 2023 September 02 07:28UTC
Prepared by the Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center
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1. Solar activity
Solar activity was increasing during the past 24 hours.
Solar Flux (10.7 cm) measured on 01.09.2023 at 20:00 UTC was 136 sfu.
The background X-Ray flux is at the class C5.0 level.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on September 01.
A M1.2 class solar flare erupted on September 01 at 03:51 UT (peak time) from AR3413 and a radioblackout (R1) was observed.
A fast CME was observed on September 01 at 03:24 UT associated with the long duration M1.2 class solar flare. This CME could reach Earth between on September 02 at  16:48 UT and on September 03 at 13:30 UT according to EAM predictions.
Another partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery on August 30 at 22:12 UT. This CME could reach Earth between on August 02 at 21:46 UT and on August 03 at 01:23 UT according to EAM predictions.
No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
The Kp index now is at active levels with Kp=4.

2. Solar Wind Geomagnetic Activity
Solar Wind speed from ACE: 512 km/s.
Solar Wind speed from STEREO A: 400 km/s.
Solar Wind speed from STEREO B: - km/s.
The southward component Bz is: 7 nT south.

3. Solar Energetic Particle Events
GOES Proton Flux for particles with energies above 10 MeV exceed the SWPC 10 MeV warning threshold on September 01 at 04:30 UT. A solar radiation storm of level S1 was also observed.

4. Coronal Holes
A coronal hole (CH1167) at northern hemisphere rotated across the central meridian on August 28.

5. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on September 02 at active to  minor storm (G1) levels with a chance of moderate storm (G2) levels on September 03 due to effects from CMEs observed on August 30 and September 01 and at quiet to unsettled levels on September 04.

   Date      Estimated Ap index      Expected geom. storm
2023.09.02           15                        -
2023.09.03           35                        G1-G2
2023.09.04           12                        -

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Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center
Physics Department, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens
Athens Neutron Monitor Station A.NE.MO.S
Tel.: +30 210 727 6901
email: spaceweather@phys.uoa.gr
URL: http://spaceweather.phys.uoa.gr
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